Reading the tea leaves for 2024 – A Look at India’s Geopolitical Trajectory in 2024 | 1 January 2024 | UPSC Daily Editorial Analysis

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What's the article about?

  • This article analyzes the likely trajectory of geopolitics in 2024, highlighting both potential challenges and opportunities for India.


  • GS2: Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora


  • Stepping into 2024, the world finds itself amidst a complex interplay of hope and realism. The polycrisis that defined the past decade – from the pandemic to the Ukraine war – continues to cast its shadow, while regional tensions simmer in hotspots like the Indo-Pacific.
  • This analysis, presented from a uniquely Indian perspective, delves into the key geopolitical challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the coming year.


  • War and Peace:
    • Israel-Hamas: Can truce pave the way for a two-state solution?  While the two-state solution appears unlikely, cessation of hostilities remains a possibility. The deep-seated animosity between Israelis and Palestinians cast doubt on the viability of a permanent ceasefire. Escalation risk is heightened by external actors like Iran, further muddying the waters.
    • Ukraine-Russia: Can fatigue and stalemate lead to an end? War fatigue on both sides and Ukraine's dwindling resources suggest a possible turning point, but the future hinges on factors like US elections and Western resolve.
    • Indo-Pacific Flashpoints: Can diplomacy defuse the tensions? Taiwan, North Korea, and the South China Sea remain potential flashpoints, while the India-China border standoff persists. Managing the US-China rivalry and strengthening strategic partnerships will be crucial for India.
  • India's Diplomatic Gains: India's proactive diplomacy scored success in various areas, solidifying crucial partnerships with the US, EU, and QUAD members. The G-20 presidency further cemented India's global leadership role.
    • Strengthening Relations with the US: Growing ties with the US, marked by political convergence, defense cooperation, and the iCET initiative, are a major highlight. 
    • Positive Trajectory with EU and Japan-Australia: Cooperation with the EU and continued focus on special relations with Japan and Australia will further strengthen India's position.
    • Resilience of India-Russia Relationship: Despite concerns, Putin's praise and tangible outcomes of recent visits suggest the relationship remains stable. A Modi-Putin summit is likely in 2024.
    • Success of G-20 Presidency: The adoption of the New Delhi Leaders' Declaration with “100% consensus” marks a significant achievement, though implementation depends on future presidencies.
  • Challenges and Opportunities: China's growing influence in South Asia demands a clear counter-strategy, while issues like climate change, trade agreements, and technological advancements require proactive engagement.
    • China's Growing Footprint in South Asia: China's economic and strategic outreach in India's backyard necessitates a well-defined counter-strategy.
    • Navigating a Multifaceted Agenda: Climate change, trade agreements, digital technology, AI, multilateral forums like G-20 and BRICS, and UN Security Council reform will demand India's attention.
    • Projecting India's Image: The upcoming parliamentary elections present an opportunity to showcase India's democratic strength and resilience to the world.

Way Forward:

  • While the future remains uncertain, India's proactive diplomacy and rising economic clout leave it well-positioned to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape in 2024. Continued focus on strategic partnerships, addressing internal challenges, and projecting its democratic values will be critical in ensuring a stable and prosperous future for India and the world.

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