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What's the article about?
- It talks about the relationship between El Nino and the Indian Monsoon.
Relevance:
- GS1: Geography of India;
- GS3: Major Crops – Cropping Patterns in various parts of the country;
- Essay;
- Prelims
Context:
- In the last few years, India received more than average rainfall during the monsoon, thanks to the presence of La Nina. However, this year, El Nino started to replace La Nina, raising fears of droughts in India.
Analysis:
- Less deficit:
- Earlier, it was predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that the deficit will be large, thus affecting the cropping season of the kharif crops.
- But now, as per the IMD, the monsoon rainfall momentum has picked up, and the overall deficiency of rainfall in June (1-29) has reduced to 5 % compared to its Long Period Average (LPA).
- IMD has also predicted that July rainfall will be normal and so would be overall rainfall for the monsoon season (June to September).
- The sowing of important kharif crops, especially rice, maize, millets, pulses, and cotton, is likely to pick up speed. That will give much-needed relief to agriculturists and the observers of agriculture and food prices.
- Average rainfall and unevenness:
- However, the spread of rainfall so far has been quite uneven. Large parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Coastal Andhra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and even West Bengal are still reeling under rain deficiency of more than 20% .
- Relation between El Nino and Indian droughts:
- From 1950 to 2022, there have been 15 drought years when weighted all-India rainfall is deficient by at least 10% of its LPA.
- Out of these 15 drought years, 11 coincided with El Nino occurrence (see graphic), suggesting a strong correlation between El Nino and Indian droughts; but all El Nino years have not necessarily resulted in droughts.
- So far, IMD has maintained that despite El Nino, India will have a normal rainfall.
- Effect of droughts: Rising food inflation
- The major outcome of drought is decreased productivity. This results in food inflation.
- The government has been already proactive on taming food prices.
- Wheat exports have been banned and now stocking limits have also been imposed on traders and processors. Rice exports have attracted export duty of 20% (on common rice).
- Most pulses have also been placed under export controls and stocking limits.
- The government has also been undertaking open market operations in wheat and rice with a view to bring down cereal inflation, which is still hovering in double digits.
Way Forward:
- As the data suggest, a strong relationship between El Nino and drought cannot be established. However, policymakers, the government, farmers, and society at large must act proactively to deal with any unforeseen conditions.
