_page-0001.jpg)
What's the article about?
- It talks about the Heatwave forecasts issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Relevance:
- GS1: Important Geophysical Phenomena, geographical features and their location-changes in critical geographical features (including water-bodies and ice-caps) and in flora and fauna and the effects of such changes;
- GS3: Disaster Management;
- Prelims
Context:
- Recently the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the country (parts of central, eastern, and northwestern India) will experience a long-lasting heat wave between April and June.
|
What are heat waves?
What is criterion for declaring heat wave?
a) Based on Departure from Normal:
b) Based on Actual Maximum Temperature:
If above criteria met at least in 2 stations in a Meteorological sub-division for at least two consecutive days and it declared on the second day. |
Analysis:
- Climate change is driving temperatures higher as well as increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves in India. In the past few years,
- India too is experiencing the impact of climate change in terms of increased instances of heat waves every year.
- A large proportion of our population is highly vulnerable to heat waves due to the possession of fewer household amenities as well as lower rates of literacy and access to water and sanitation.
- Apart from the high mortality rates observed, heat waves severely impact our well-being. Aptly called a “silent disaster,” it has developed gradually and led to serious health concerns for humans, crops as well as livestock.
- El Nino is one of the important factors that decides the intensity of heat waves in India:
- In the last month there is a greater certainty of an El Niño, or a warming of sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Central Pacific, that is strongly associated with reduced rains over northwest India.
- Many El Niño years also see reduced monsoon rainfall during June to September and are often associated with drought-like conditions.
- The IMD’s official outlook says that ‘neutral’ (neither El Niño, or its converse, a cooling La Niña) conditions are persisting in the Pacific.
- The World Meteorological Organization’s outlook says that the chances of El Niño developing gradually increase from 15% in April-June, to 35% in May-July, and rise to around 55% during June-August.
- Later this month, the IMD is expected to announce its first forecast for the monsoon and this will hinge on the El Niño-La Niña development.
- Role of IMD forecasts:
- The purpose of forecasts is to give lead time to States to prepare.
- The National Disaster Management Authority has been issuing guidelines to States on preparing Heat Action Plans since 2016.
- Many States have prepared documents that detail measures and methods to deal with heat-related contingencies that, as reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warn, are only poised to get worse. But, many of these recommendations are only on paper.
- An analysis by researchers at the Centre for Policy Research of such heat action plans found that most of them are not made to capture local context.
- For instance, only dangers from unusually high temperatures are evaluated and almost none from humidity and warm nights. Several plans are under-funded and lack legal backing.
Way Forward:
- Heat wave forecasts should be taken as seriously as monsoon forecasts, and the Centre as well as State governments must play a more coordinated role in implementing these plans.
