Ukraine-Russia Conflict Explained

Context:

• NATO sends ships and jets to eastern Europe in Ukraine crisis.

Relevance:

• Prelims: Current events of national and international importance;
• Mains: GS-I History of the World; GS-II International Relations; Effects of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interest.

Ukraine Crisis:

• The conflict playing out between Russia and Ukraine is one marked by land borders and shaped by strategic influence. 
• Moscow sees Ukraine as an important buffer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. 
• Ukraine sees Russia as an aggressor that has already occupied parts of Ukrainian territory.
• The US intelligence reports said the tension on the Russia-Ukraine border represents a major security crisis for the region, with the potential to snowball into a broader conflict.
• Ukraine says that Russia has amassed around 1,00,000 troops at the border.
• It carries echoes of the Cold War and resurrects an idea left over from the 1945 Yalta Conference: that the West should respect a Russian sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Background:
  • The historical links date as far back as the 9th century, when a group of people called the Rus moved their capital to Kyiv — a legacy President Vladimir Putin has often invoked when arguing that Ukraine is bound to Russia.
  • Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until it declared independence in August 1991.
    • Ukraine and Russia share a 1974km land border as well as hundreds of years of cultural, linguistic and familial links.
    • For many in Russia and in the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine, the shared heritage of the countries is an emotional issue that has been exploited for electoral and military purposes.
    • As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and was crucial strategically, economically and culturally.
  • It served as a strategic part of the Soviet Union, with a large agricultural industry and important ports on the Black Sea.

Timeline:

• Timeline of events:
  • 2013 November:
    • Ukrainian government suspends preparations for signing an Association Agreement with the EU
    • Anti-government protests break out in Ukraine- the “Euromaidan” protests
  • 2014 February – March:
    • Protests continue to spread across Ukraine, with police firing live ammunition at demonstrators.
    • The Ukrainian parliament voted to impeach Yanukovych and the interim government draws up an arrest warrant for the ousted president.
    • However, Yanukovych flees to Russia, decrying his removal as a “coup.”
    • Russian troops take over Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and seize the regional parliament and government buildings.
    • The regional parliament holds a referendum on the status of Crimea just two weeks after the Russian military occupation begins.
    • Over 95 per cent vote in favour of joining the Russian Federation.
    • Russia then signs a treaty with Crimean leaders to formally annex the peninsula.
    • In response, the leaders of the G8 remove Russia from the bloc, which is now known as the G7.
    • The annexation is also declared illegal in a non-binding resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly.
    • EU adopts sanctions
  • 2014 April:
    • Pro-Russia separatist militants take control of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
    • These militants are believed to be supported by the Russian government, although Moscow has denied being directly involved in the conflict. 
    • NATO suspends cooperation with Russia
  • 2014 April – December:
    • Petro Poroshenko wins Ukrainian presidency
    • EU and Ukraine sign Association Agreement
    • Malaysian Airlines flight shot down in eastern Ukraine
    • EU imposes broad sanctions on Russian industry
    • Russia retaliated by banning Western food imports
    • Frist Minsk Protocol stipulates ceasefire
    • New EU sanctions
    • EP and Ukraine ratify Association Agreement
    • Ukraine elects pro-European parliament 
    • EU sanctions separatists
  • 2015 January – April:
    • Minsk talks collapse as fighting intensifies in the eastern regions of Ukraine
    • Second Minsk agreement signed
    • Second Minsk agreement enters into force
    • Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov is shot dead in Moscow
    • IMF approves a $17.5 billion bailout for Ukraine
    • EU extends sanctions over actions against Ukraine's territorial integrity
    • 17th Ukraine-Eu summit
  • 2015 May
    • NATO and the EU announced that they will intensify cooperation in countering 'hybrid warfare'
    • Rada approves legislation allowing a moratorium on debt repayment
    • Rada votes to suspend military cooperation with Russia
    • Eu and Ukraine reach agreement on a US$ 2 billion loan to revive Ukraine's economy
    • Russian PM Medvedev says that Russia will collect its debt if Ukraine defaults
    • Moscow imposes travel ban on 89 hostile EU politicians and officials
    • Poroshenko appoints former Georgian President Saakashvili Governor of Odessa
  • 2016 
    • The economy returns to fragile growth after two years of turmoil.
  • 2017 July 
    • Ukraine's association agreement with the European Union is ratified by all signatories and comes into force on 1 September.
  • 2018 May 
    • Russian President Putin officially opens a bridge linking southern Russia to Crimea, an action Ukraine calls illegal.
  • 2018 October 
    • The Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople agrees to allow Ukraine to set up its own Orthodox Church independent of Russian ecclesiastical supervision.
  • 2019 April-July 
    • Television comedian Volodymyr Zelensky wins presidential election run-off in a landslide victory over incumbent Petro Poroshenko.
    • He takes office in May, and his Servant of the People party wins early parliamentary elections in July.
  • 2019 August 
    • Parliament appoints President Zelensky's aide Oleksiy Honcharuk prime minister.
  • 2019 September 
    • Russia and Ukraine swap prisoners captured in the wake of Moscow's seizure of Crimea and intervention in the Donbas.
  • 2019 October 
    • Ukraine becomes embroiled in US impeachment row over allegations of President Trump attempting to put pressure on the country over investigating possible Democrat president rival Joe Biden.
  • 2020 March 
    • President Zelensky appoints former businessman Denys Shmyhal prime minister with a mandate to stimulate industrial revival and improve tax receipts.
  • 2021 November :
    • Satellite imagery shows a build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, stoking fears of a potential invasion.
    • Zelensky also says that Russia had mobilized 100,000 soldiers in the border area, along with tanks and other heavy equipment.
  • 2021 December 7:
    • U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with his Russian counterpart over a video call.
    • Putin called for NATO to guarantee an end to eastward expansion while Biden threatened to impose harsh economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.
  • 2022 January 2 
    • In a call with Zelensky, Biden promises that the U.S. and allies with act “decisively” if Russia further invades Ukraine.
  • 2022 January 24
    • NATO said it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets in response to Russia's military build-up at Ukraine's borders.

Understanding the tension between Russia and Ukraine:

• Annexation of Crimea:
  • Russia's decision to invade and annex Crimea in March 2014 started a protracted conflict known as the Russo-Ukrainian War.
  • There were a series of events that led to the annexation, two of the most important being the Revolution of Dignity and the Crimean Status Referendum.
  • After Viktor Yanukovych, the then Ukrainian president, refused to sign the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement and a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, thereby signalling a tightening of ties with Russia and its allies like Belarus, large-scale protests (known as the Euromaidan) broke out in Ukraine in November 2013, demanding the impeachment of the president.
  • The protests escalated into violent clashes between the protestors and the state security forces in the capital city of Kyiv, which culminated in the overthrow of the Yanukovych regime in February 2014.
  • The interim government that was established after the revolution signed the Association Agreement, and even held snap elections in May.
  • These developments greatly worried Putin, who later revealed for a Russian documentary film that the secret order for Russia's annexation of Crimea was actually given right after a late-night meeting that discussed at length the deposition of President Yanukovych.
  • On the day that meeting ended (23 February 2014), pro-Russian demonstrations began in Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea.
  • Protesters demanded that the Crimean Parliament refuse to recognise the Ukrainian interim government and that a “Russian city should have a Russian mayor.”
  • The Supreme Council of Crimea (SCC) declared Crimea to be independent of Ukraine, in what came to be known as the Republic of Crimea, which is a de facto federal subject of the Russian Federation.
    • Crimea hosts Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet.
    • Without ready access to Crimea, Russia’s naval capability would be crippled.
    • That would reduce Russian strategic capability and diminish Russia’s ability to serve as a node of global power resisting America’s unipolar dominance.
• Russian interests in Ukraine
  • Not only Crimea, but Russia also effectively took away the Donbas region from Ukraine, which consists of the administrative divisions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • Unrest created by pro-Russia separatists has led to the creation of quasi republics, known as the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, both of which now function completely under Putin's influence.
  • Combination of motives:
    • Ideology:  “one people”
    • Domestic Influence: Domestic challenges like the stagnant economy, endemic corruption, crumbling Infrastructure, disillusion from the elite to the grassroots and the pandemic led to an aggressive approach towards Ukraine
    • NATO: Ukraine under Zelensky has been inching closer and closer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with respect to both weapons procurement and its accession into the alliance that is supposed to keep a check on Russian expansionism in Europe.
      • A Ukraine allied to NATO is therefore agreed upon as a security threat to Russia in the foreign policy department of the latter, with policymakers believing that NATO troops in Ukraine will alter the military balance against Russia.

Causes for conflict:

• Balance of Power:
  • Ever since Ukraine split from the Soviet Union, both Russia and the West have vied for greater influence in the country in order to keep the balance of power in the region in their favour.
• Buffer Zone for Western Countries:
  • For the US and the European Union, Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West.
  • As tensions with Russia rise, the US and the EU are increasingly determined to keep Ukraine away from Russian control.
• Russian Interest in the Black Sea:
  • The unique geography of the Black Sea region confers several geopolitical advantages to Russia.
  • Firstly, it is an important crossroads and strategic intersection for the entire region.
    • Access to the Black Sea is vital for all littoral and neighboring states, and greatly enhances the projection of power into several adjacent regions.
    • Secondly, the region is an important transit corridor for goods and energy.
• Protests in Ukraine:
  • Euromaidan Movement: Euromaidan (European Square) was a wave of demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine, which began in November 2013 with public protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti (“Independence Square”) in Kyiv, Ukraine.
  • The protests were sparked by the Ukrainian government's decision to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European Union, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.
• Separatist Movement:
  • The Donbas region (the Donetsk and Luhansk regions) of eastern Ukraine has been facing a pro-Russian separatist movement since 2014.
  • According to the Ukrainian government, the movement is actively supported by the Russian government and Russian paramilitaries make up between 15% to 80% of the separatists fighting against the Ukrainian government.
• Invasion of Crimea:
  • Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in what was the first time a European country annexed territory from another country since World War-2.
  • The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine followed a Russian military intervention in Crimea that took place in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and was part of wider unrest across southern and eastern Ukraine.
  • The invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea have given Russia a maritime upper hand in the region.
• Ukraine's NATO Membership:
  • Ukraine has urged the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to speed up the country’s membership in the alliance.
  • Russia has declared such a move a “red line”, and worried about the consequences of the US-led military alliances expanding right up to its doorstep.
  • The Black Sea is bordered by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. All these countries except Russia & Ukraine are NATO countries.
  • Due to this faceoff between NATO countries and Russia, the Black sea is a region of strategic importance & a potential maritime flashpoint.

Concerns:

• Efforts to induct Ukraine into NATO have been ongoing for many years and seem to have picked up pace recently.
  • Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO – and has said as much in its list of security demands which were sent to the US last December.
  • The demands included a halt to any NATO drills near Russia’s border.
• Russia has declared such a move a “red line”, with Moscow worried about the consequences of the US-led military alliances expanding right up to its doorstep.
• It is not easy to know about the intentions of Russia and stop it from pursuing those.
  • The West is accusing Russia, which has massed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, of preparing to invade its pro-Western neighbour.
  • The Pentagon has put 8,500 US troops on standby for an Eastern European deployment and NATO said it was sending ships and jets to bolster the region’s defences.
• Putting sanctions on Russia may not be enough to deter her.
• A major blockage has been Russia’s insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore is not bound by its terms mentioned in the Minsk 2 Agreement.

Minsk Agreements:

• Minsk I:
  • Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists agreed on a 12-point ceasefire deal in the capital of Belarus in September 2014.
  • Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of heavy weapons.
  • The agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.
• Minsk II:
  • In 2015, an open conflict was averted after the ‘Minsk II’ peace agreement was signed, under the mediation of France and Germany.
  • It was designed to end the fighting in the rebel regions and hand over the border to Ukraine’s national troops.
  • It was signed by representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions.
    • OSCE is the world's largest security-oriented intergovernmental organisation.
    • Its mandate includes issues such as arms control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and fair elections.

Present situation:

• Russia is seeking assurances from the US that Ukraine will not be inducted into NATO.
• However, the US is not prepared to give any such assurance.
• This has left the countries in a stand-off, with tens of thousands of Russian troops ready to invade Ukraine.
• Russia is keeping the tensions high at the Ukraine border in order to get sanctions relief and other concessions from the West.
• Any kind of military action by the US or EU against Russia would precipitate a major crisis for the whole world and has so far not been mooted by any of the parties involved.

International response:

• The European Union and US have imposed a series of measures in response to Russia’s actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, including economic sanctions targeting individuals, entities and specific sectors of the Russian economy.
• Russia's response:
  • Moscow sees the growing support for Ukraine from NATO — in terms of weaponry, training and personnel — as a threat to its own security.
    • It has also accused Ukraine of boosting its own troop numbers in preparation for an attempt to retake the Donbas region, an allegation Ukraine has denied.
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for specific legal agreements that would rule out any further NATO expansion eastwards towards Russia’s borders, saying the West has not lived up to its previous verbal assurances.

Impact on India:

• India is a traditional defender of national sovereignty, even against doctrines such as the global community’s ‘Responsibility to Protect’ persecuted minorities within national borders. 
• In 2014, the Russian annexation of Crimea created problems for India.
• And if Moscow again takes military action against Ukraine, it will significantly complicate India’s objectives vis-à-vis Russia, China, the US, Europe, and even Ukraine.
• India's stand:
  • India did not join the Western powers’ condemnation of Russia’s intervention in Crimea and kept a low profile on the issue.
  • In November 2020, India voted against a Ukraine-sponsored resolution in the United Nations (UN) that condemned alleged human rights violations in Crimea thereby backing old ally Russia on the issue.
  • During a UNSC meeting in May 2021, India signalled its backing for traditional partner Russia on the Ukraine issue.
  • India has advocated political and diplomatic solutions that protect the legitimate interests of all countries in the region and ensure long term peace and stability in Europe and beyond.
  • The path forward can only be through peaceful dialogue for a lasting solution acceptable to all concerned.
• Striking a Balance: Russia is important to India- So is Ukraine
  • Russia:
    • The India and Russia ties have been a longstanding relation.

• • Ukraine:
    • Ukraine was once a primary supplier and a good friend to India in the Soviet days.

• Impacts:
  • Deepen Russia-China relations:
    • The Ukraine crisis would hinder Delhi’s interest in preventing a further deepening of Russia’s ties with China.
    • Potential Russian military action against Ukraine and western backlash would mean that Moscow will need Beijing’s diplomatic support even more.
    • Beyond the strategic challenge that a close Sino-Russian partnership poses for India, a Moscow that is more beholden to Beijing would be particularly problematic at this moment when India is dependent on Russian military supplies and Sino-Indian border tensions could flare up again.
      • It’s worth keeping in mind that in 1962 when Moscow needed Beijing’s backing during the Cuban missile crisis, it resulted in Soviet support for ally China versus friend India at a crucial moment in the China-India war.
  • Strains India-Russia relationship:
    • Russian military action against Ukraine would complicate India’s efforts to maintain a delicate balance between its partnerships with the US, Europe, and Russia.
    • With Russia, India shares a special and privileged strategic partnership.
    • Delhi was in a political dilemma, post the Russian annexation of Crimea, of neither openly criticising nor endorsing Russian actions.
    • However, its silence will be seen as an endorsement.
    • Moreover, even as Moscow might seek support from Delhi, it will sell India’s silence as an endorsement, as it did in the case of Crimea, and recently when it unilaterally issued a joint statement on Afghanistan.
    • This will not be not easy for India to contemplate since its armed forces will be dependent on Russian spares and equipment for the foreseeable future.
  • Strains India-Ukraine relations:
    • The rift between Russia and Ukraine, which burst out into armed combat when Moscow annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, has created a potential dilemma for India.
    • Recently, a Russian press release has objected to the overhaul in Ukraine of military equipment built and sold by Russia.
    • Russia has begun objecting to customers dealing with Ukraine.
    • • The potential for trouble with Russia exists because the Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently collaborating with Ukraine to overhaul its fleet of AN-32s.
  • Worsening India's relationship with the US :
    • A worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict would also bring India-US and India-Europe contradictions on Russia to the fore.
    • India and the United States enjoy a comprehensive, global, strategic partnership, covering almost all areas of human endeavour, driven by shared democratic values and convergence of interests on a range of issues.
    • The western response will involve even more sanctions that will further hinder India’s ability to do business with Russia and diversify Russia-India ties.
    • A Russian invasion and a rupture with the US and its allies would lead to pressure on India to choose between the Western alliance and Russia.
      • Immediately, it could result in CAATSA sanctions on India on account of the S-400 purchase.
    •  A deteriorating situation in Europe could draw US attention away from the Indo-Pacific theatre, as Afghanistan and Middle East crises did in previous administrations.
    • It has already absorbed considerable American bandwidth at a time when Delhi wants Washington to be focused on the China challenge.
  • Concerns over India-Europe engagements:
    • A Russia-Ukraine crisis could also create headwinds for India’s move to deepen security and economic ties with European partners.
    • A crisis nearer home could reduce Europe’s increased attention to Asia, especially India.
    • Moreover, in order to focus on the Russian challenge, European capitals could seek to stabilise ties with China, rather than act against its assertive actions.
    • This, in turn, could negatively affect the coordinated approach that Delhi seeks among like-minded partners to balance China.
    • Furthermore, whether or not Beijing seeks to use the opportunity of the West being distracted to take further military action against India or elsewhere, China would benefit from American and European attention focused on Russia-Ukraine rather than on Asia.
    • It could potentially present itself as a useful interlocutor between the West and Moscow, or seek accommodation from a West that needs stability in Asia to focus on Europe, or try to deepen the cleavages between the US and Europe on itself.
  • Other impacts:
    • There are other problematic aspects of a Russia-Ukraine crisis for Delhi.
      • For instance, India has economic and defence trade ties with Ukraine, as well as 7,500-odd citizens residing there.
      • Nonetheless, Moscow’s justifications for its actions against Ukraine are similar to those Beijing makes versus India: Historical claims, ethnic linkages, and Indian steps that it says threaten China.
      • And Russian military action would go against respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty that Delhi frequently advocates.
    • Possible positive impacts:
      • A US-Russian deal could lead to the latter slowing down the pace of its relationship with China.
        • This could give India the opportunity to build on its recent efforts to reset its Russian ties.
      • If it is accompanied by a similar thaw in the US-Iran relationship, it could pave the way for India, Russia and Iran to work on the International North-South Transportation (INSTC) project that has been hobbled by the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran and Russia.
• Way Ahead:
  • Territorial integrity and sovereignty are sacrosanct for India.
    • It is for this reason that notwithstanding India’s excellent relations with Russia, it has not recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia as a result of the military conflict between Russia and Georgia in August 2008.
    • Similarly, in spite of India’s extensive and wide-ranging relations with the US, India has not recognised Kosovo which declared its independence from Serbia in February 2008.
  • India should encourage both Russia and the US to try to reach a compromise with a mutually acceptable agreement in the forthcoming meeting in Geneva next month.
  • A conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the latter supported by the US and Europe, would be in no one’s interest.
    • The US can, short of making Ukraine a NATO member, provide it with all military support and hardware that might be required to effectively protect and defend itself against an onslaught by Russia, should such an eventuality occur.
    • The message should also be clear that another action like the 2014 annexation of Crimea will not be tolerated and would immediately trigger an appropriate response from Ukraine’s allies.
  • For all the reasons above, India will hope for a diplomatic solution and that Russia does not take military action against Ukraine.
  • It is unclear if Delhi privately has expressed or will express its concerns to Moscow.
  • Regardless, it is likely considering such a scenario and will have to prepare for the potential fallout for India’s interests with Russia, the West and China.