What’s the article is about?
The article talks about the implications and outcomes to China w.r.t Ukraine crisis.
Syllabus: GS2, International relations, developments in the neighborhood.
Positive outcomes to China
- China's status as a responsible power. As it abstained from voting at the UNSC.
- External stability, an enabling external environment, and positive perception and recognition of China’s role in the world would help the party at home too.
- Best relations with Russia, there are some rumors that Russia, talked with China about the attack. And China requested to postpone till the completion of the Winter Olympics.
- Improved relations with the USA, The New York Times had alleged that U.S. intelligence had sought China’s help in dissuading Mr. Putin against the invasion.
Strategic outcomes
- As a consequence of this invasion, the West will possibly direct its attention away from China.
- China will not remain the principal villain in the eyes of the liberal world, which it has been since it has unilaterally been constructing islands in the South China Sea, and since reports of human rights violations in Xinjiang have increased.
- Reduction in China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ as it senses an opportunity to meditate and create a stake in the settlement process.
- Russia is imposing costs on the West by stretching its military budgets is also a good thing for China. This will divert Europe’s attention to its neighborhood and away from the Indo-Pacific and possibly delay its engagements with the Quad.
- Beijing also sees a pattern in Ukraine’s engagement with Europe and fears its repetition in Central Asia where Russian and Chinese interests converge in keeping democratic interventions away.
- The escalation matrix used by Russia could well be a template if China were to consider a military solution in Taiwan or in circumstances where it sees its core interests being violated.
- China would also be studying Russian posturing and signaling, such as putting the nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, and the response from the U.S., individual European countries, and the UNSC.
