What’s the article about?
The article talks briefly about the Ukraine-Russia crisis and weakening of NATO, outlook for India and World.
Syllabus: GS-II, International relations and events.
Ukraine-Russia Conflict background:
- Ukraine west supports European Union and West, Ukraine east supports Russian.
- Euromaidan movement to counter the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union instead of the EU. In response, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
- Agreements like Minsk agreements and Steinmeier Formula that end up in failure.
Cause of Conflict now between two
- Balance of Power: Both Russia and west, sees Ukraine as balancing power and vied great influence in the region
- Acts as a buffer: Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West.
- NATO Enlargement: After the dissolution of Soviet Union, Founding act was signed between Russia,NATO but NATO enlarged pulling former soviet members into its orbit. Now Ukraine being one.
- Geo-strategic: Ukraine is Geo-strategically placed w.r.t to Russia, as important transit corridor for goods and energy. Unique geography of the Black Sea region.
- Economic factors: With Ukraine’s huge market and advanced agriculture and industrial output, Ukraine was supposed to play an important role. But rejected to join Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC).
- Protection and defend pro-Russia regions: To provide autonomy to the Donbas region of Ukraine that is pro-Russia.
- Nuclear Weapons Issue: Russia, accused Ukraine for amassing nuclear weapons with the help of USA.
- False Flag attack: Russia, criticizes Ukraine for mass genocide on pro-Russian citizens in Donbas region hence attacking Ukraine for protection of people.
Weakening of NATO:
- NATO countries today span a geography of uneven economic development and a diversity of political traditions and historical consciousness.
- Ideological solidarity against communist expansionand existential military threat dissolved with collapse of Soviet union.
- US limitations to bridge the difference among NATO nations. Ex: Minsk agreement although Ukraine and USA is of view of unfair, countries like France and Germany brokered these to resume normal relations with Russia.
- Energy Security: Russia, provides cheap energy and gas to European nations. Ex: Nord-Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia.
- France president said that NATO braindead and the Europe, as a geopolitical power,should control its own destiny,regaining military sovereignty ,reopening a dialogue with Russia,managing the misgivings of post Soviet countries.
Impact on India:
- Diaspora: Ukraine host >25000 students, hence a conflict poses a threat to Indian diaspora.
- Sanctions on India: India might attract CAATSA sanctions due to purchase of s-400.
- Strengthen Russia-China ties: It may strengthen Russia-China relations as most of European countries invoked sanctions on Russia.
- Impact on India’s defence Sector: Russia is one of the largest defence supplier to India
- Crude oil: >10% of Indian crude oil is imported from Russia, hence increase in prices of fuel and fiscal deficit.
As Ban-ki-moon said “The world is over-armed and peace is under funded”, need is all countries should come together to protect world peace and solve crisis amicably.
