UPSC Daily Editorial Analysis | 25 February 2022

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What’s the article about?

The article talks briefly about the Ukraine-Russia crisis and weakening of NATO, outlook for India and World.

Syllabus: GS-II, International relations and events.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict background:

  • Ukraine west supports European Union and West, Ukraine east supports Russian.
  • Euromaidan movement to counter the Russia led Eurasian Economic Union instead of the EU. In response, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
  • Agreements like Minsk agreements and Steinmeier Formula that end up in failure.

Cause of Conflict now between two

  • Balance of Power: Both Russia and west, sees Ukraine as balancing power and vied great influence in the region
  • Acts as a buffer: Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West. 
  • NATO Enlargement: After the dissolution of Soviet Union, Founding act was signed between Russia,NATO but NATO enlarged pulling former soviet members into its orbit. Now Ukraine being one.
  • Geo-strategic: Ukraine is Geo-strategically placed w.r.t to Russia, as important  transit corridor for goods and energy. Unique geography of the Black Sea region.
  • Economic factors: With Ukraine’s huge market and advanced agriculture and industrial output, Ukraine was supposed to play an important role. But rejected to join Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC).
  • Protection and defend pro-Russia regions: To provide autonomy to the Donbas region of Ukraine that is pro-Russia.
  • Nuclear Weapons Issue: Russia, accused Ukraine for amassing nuclear weapons with the help of USA.
  • False Flag attack: Russia, criticizes Ukraine for mass genocide on pro-Russian citizens in Donbas region hence attacking Ukraine for protection of people.

Weakening of NATO:

  • NATO countries today span a geography of uneven      economic development and a diversity of political traditions and historical consciousness. 
  • Ideological solidarity against communist expansionand existential military threat dissolved with collapse of Soviet union.
  • US limitations to bridge the difference among NATO nations. Ex: Minsk agreement although Ukraine and USA is of view of unfair, countries like France and Germany brokered these to resume normal relations with Russia.
  • Energy Security: Russia, provides cheap energy and gas to European nations. Ex: Nord-Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia.
  • France president said that NATO brain­dead and the Europe, as a geopolitical power,should control its own destiny,regaining military sovereignty ,re­opening a    dialogue with Russia,managing the misgivings of post Soviet countries.

Impact on India:

  • Diaspora: Ukraine host >25000 students, hence a conflict poses a threat to Indian diaspora.
  • Sanctions on India: India might attract CAATSA sanctions due to purchase of s-400.
  • Strengthen Russia-China ties: It may strengthen Russia-China relations as most of European countries invoked sanctions on Russia.
  • Impact on India’s defence Sector: Russia is one of the largest defence supplier to India
  • Crude oil: >10% of Indian crude oil is imported from Russia, hence increase in prices of fuel and fiscal deficit.

As Ban-ki-moon said “The world is over-armed and peace is under funded”, need is all countries should come together to protect world peace and solve crisis amicably.

 



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