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What's the article about?
- It talks about the key findings of the recent World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) annual update on the projections for temperature trends in the next decade and thus India’s status of disaster preparedness.
Relevance:
- GS3: Disaster and Disaster Management;
- Essay;
- Prelims
Context:
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its annual update on its projections for temperature trends in the next decade.
- Its findings are worrisome and could have a negative impact on India if India’s disaster preparedness is not on a proper track.
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Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Report – WMO
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Key findings of the report:
- The year 2022 will be cooler (compared to the 1991 – 2020 average) over India, along with Alaska and Canada.
- The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is likely to be 1.1°-1.8°C higher than the average from 1850-1900.
- There is a 66% chance that the global near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in at least one year before 2027 though it is unlikely that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
- There is a 93% likelihood of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking.
- Back-to-back La Niña events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures, but this is only temporary and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend.
- Any development of an El Niño event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, which is until now the warmest year on record.
Analysis:
- The 1.5°C threshold, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has repeatedly said, is one that is best left unbreached to avoid the disastrous consequences of global warming.
- While world leaders at climate summits are in agreement, few of their actions are consistent with keeping temperature-rise within this rubicon, with current climate policies poised to heat the globe beyond 2°C by the end of the century.
- The oceans too are on fire. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to be positive in December to February 2023-24, meaning that the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to be at least half a degree, more likely over a degree above what is normal.
- India is bracing for this El Niño during the monsoon, with the India Meteorological Department already indicating that monsoon rainfall will be on the lower side of ‘normal’.
- The El Niño “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory”.
- Hotter oceans also mean stronger cyclones. Cyclone Mocha, which barrelled through Myanmar this week and claimed at least 60 lives and wrought severe damage, ended up being stronger than what was initially estimated.
Way Forward:
- The WMO update does not have specific inputs for India; however, the overall trend in indicators suggests that India, dependent as it is on rain-fed agriculture and with its long coastline, will be severely tested due to changes in the global climate.
- India’s abilities at forecasting cyclones and weather anomalies have improved but developing resilience is far more challenging. Greater investments in bolstering disaster-related infrastructure are the need of the hour.
