Key Demographics Indicators and Statistics related to India

Key demographic terms and indicators and their statistics are relevant for mains answer writing. 

Relevance: Issues relating to the development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

Defined as the number of maternal deaths during a given time period per 100,000 live births during the same time period. It depicts the risk of maternal death relative to the number of live births and essentially captures the risk of death in a single pregnancy or a single live birth. 

Statistics

• The Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) in India has declined to 113 in 2016-18 from 122 in 2015-17 and 130 in 2014-2016, according to the special bulletin on Maternal Mortality in India 2016-18, released by the Office of the Registrar General’s Sample Registration System (SRS)
• The target 3.1 of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) set by the United Nations aims to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 1,00,000 live births.

Total fertility rate (TFR)

• In simple terms refer to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population. TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility (UN, Population Division).
• This value represents the average number of children a woman would need to have to reproduce herself by bearing a daughter who survives to childbearing age. If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself without any need for the country to balance the population by international migration.

Indian Case

• In 1950-55, India’s total fertility rate (TFR, a measure of live births per woman in her lifespan of the reproductive period was) 5.9. On average, an Indian woman gave birth six times. The rate has declined steadily since 1975 to touch 2.2 live births per woman.

Crude Birth Rate

Definition: The crude birth rate is the annual number of live births per 1,000 population.

Method of measurement

• The crude birth rate is generally computed as a ratio. The numerator is the number of live births observed in a population during a reference period and the denominator is the number of person-years lived by the population during the same period. It is expressed as births per 1,000 population.  

India

• India’s birth rate has declined drastically over the last four decades from 36.9 in 1971 to 17.592 births per 1000 people in 2020, a 1.2% decline from 2019.
• The rural-urban differential has also narrowed. However, the birth rate has continued to be higher in rural areas compared to urban areas.
• Bihar (26.2) continues to remain at the top of the list in the birth rate while Andaman and Nicobar (11.2) are at the bottom.

Death rate:

• The death rate of India has witnessed a significant decline over the last four decades from 14.9 in 1971 to 6.2 in 2018.
• In the last decade, the death rate at an all-India level has declined from 7.3 to 6.2.
• The decline has been steeper in rural areas.
• Chhattisgarh has the highest death rate at 8 and Delhi, an almost entirely urban state has the lowest death rate of 3.3.

Infant mortality rate:

• IMR has decreased to 32 about one-fourth as compared to 1971 (129).
• The IMR at an all-India level has declined from 50 to 32 in the last decade.
• Madhya Pradesh has the highest IMR of 48 and Nagaland has the lowest IMR of 4.
• Infant mortality is the number of deaths of children under one year of age per 1000 live births.

Child mortality rate:

• Is the mortality of children under the age of five. The child mortality rate, also 'under-five mortality rate', refers to the probability of dying between birth and exactly five years of age expressed per 1,000 live births.

Life Expectancy: The number of years which an individual at a given age can expect to live at present mortality levels.

Demographics of India

Population Density: 

The population density of India in 2011 is 382 per sq km while the urban population is 31.60 % of the total population. Urban migration over the last decade has resulted in the rapid growth of urban slums.

India's Population Pyramid

Demographic Dividend: 

• According to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), demographic dividend means, “the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older)”.

Demographic Dividend of India

• Since 2018, India’s working-age population (people between 15 and 64 years of age) has grown larger than the dependant population — children aged 14 or below as well as people above 65 years of age. This bulge in the working-age population is going to last till 2055, or 37 years from its beginning.
• Many Asian economies — Japan, China, South Korea — were able to use this ‘demographic dividend’, defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) as the growth potential that results from shifts in a population’s age structure.
• This transition happens largely because of a decrease in the total fertility rate (TFR, which is the number of births per woman) after the increase in life expectancy gets stabilised.

Labour supply: The first benefit of the young population is the increased labour supply, as more people reach working age. However, the magnitude of this benefit depends on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers.

Capital formation: As the number of dependents decreases individuals save more. This increase in national savings rates increases the stock of capital in developing countries and provides an opportunity to create the country’s capital through investment.

The rise in women’s workforce that naturally accompanies a decline in fertility, and which can be a new source of growth.

Economic growth: Another opportunity is produced by increased domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio. This leads to demand-driven economic growth. Growth, education, better economic security and a desire for more durable goods are the cause and consequence of young demographics.

Increase in the savings rate, as the working-age also happens to be the prime period for saving.

Infrastructure: Increased fiscal space created by the demographic dividend enables the government to divert resources from spending on children to investing in physical and human infrastructure.

Skilled workforce: Most sectors of the Indian economy would require a more skilled workforce than the present. It would be both a challenge and an opportunity for India to provide its workforce with required skill sets and knowledge to enable them to contribute substantially to its economic growth.

Migration: It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labour shortage in some parts

Enhancing human capital: Poor human capital formation is reflected in low employability among India’s graduates and postgraduates. According to ASSOCHAM, only 20-30 % of engineers find a job suited to their skills. Thus, low human capital base and lack of skills is a big challenge.

The informal economy: Informal nature of the economy in India is another challenge in reaping the benefits of demographic transition in India. Nearly 216 million people are engaged in the agriculture sector, are in the informal economy where not only they earn lower wages, but with little social security and few days of employment in a year.

Jobless growth: There is a mounting concern that future growth could turn out to be jobless due to deindustrialization, de-globalization, the fourth industrial revolution and technological progress. As per the NSSO's Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India’s labour force participation rate for the age-group 15-59 years is around 53%, that is around half of the working-age population is jobless.

Asymmetric demography: The growth in the working-age ratio is likely to be concentrated in some of India’s poorest states and the demographic dividend will be fully realised only if India is able to create gainful employment opportunities for this working-age population.

Low human development: India ranks 130 out of 189 countries in UNDP’s Human Development Index, which is alarming. Life expectancy at birth in India (68 years) is much lower than in other developing countries. The mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling and need to be improved.

Building human capital: India has to invest more in human capital formation at all levels, from primary education to higher education, cutting-edge research and development as well as on vocational training to increase the skill sets of its growing working-age population.

Skill development: Skill development is needed to increase the employability of the young population. 

Education: Enhancing educational levels by properly investing in primary, secondary and higher education is important. 

Health: Improvement in healthcare infrastructure would ensure a higher number of productive days for the young labour force, thus increasing the productivity of the economy.

Job Creation: The nation needs to create ten million jobs per year to absorb the addition of young people into the workforce.

Good governance: Effective avenues for citizen input, well-functioning institutions, respect for the rule of law, low level of corruption, respect for property rights, the sanctity of contracts etc. are important aspects of good governance that enable the equal opportunity to all.